摘要 : 即使如中国联通所愿，在今年年底管理层允许FDD正式全国运营，恐怕其也错过了4G时代，并不能挽救中国联通增速上下滑的趋势。
Abstract: Though authorities permit to officially run FDD all over China at the end of this year, China Unicom is losing its best chance to join in 4G trend, thus it cannot reverse its downturn of growth rate.
“增长明星”中国联通去哪儿了？
What has China Unicom done?
中国联通近日公布的中期财务报告显示，其营业收入同比增长只有3.3%，主营业务收入，即通信服务收入，同比增长8.5%。
According to China Unicom’s interim financial report released recently, its operating income grew by only 3.3% higher than the same period of the previous year, and its main business, namely communication service revenue, grained by 8.5% than the same period of the previous year..
在财报中，中国联通自述：收入增长速度放缓。尽管其自称继续超过行业平均水平2.9个百分点，但是与去年的同期5.0个百分点相比，尤其是其主营业务收入在2013年的上半年还高达13.9%的事实，一年之后增速下滑如此之快，令人难免疑问，3G时代曾经一度引领风骚的中国联通去哪儿了？
According to the report, China Unicom says the growth rate slows down. Though it claims that it still maintains 2.9% higher than the average level of the industry, compared with the 5% in 2013 and 13.9% growth of its main business income in the first half of 2013, the growth rate slows down so fast that many concerns arose about this once-undisputed leader in 3G.
在财报中，中国联通的解释是营改增的税改政策，以及市场环境的变化是造成增速下滑的主要原因。
China Unicom blames it mainly for the policy of business tax changed to value-added tax, and also the fast change of market.
但是事实则是，营改增政策直到今年的6月1号才正式开始实施。而在其财务报表中，有关税金的变化幅度并不能解释是造成收入增速下滑的原因。
However, it’s not until June 1st that the policy officially came into effect. Whereas, the change of such tax policy couldn’t explain the truth of slowdown.
引人注目的则是另一个数据：中国联通在2014年上半年移动宽带业务终端补贴成本为33.3亿元。要知道，在2013年，其补贴成本是42.4亿元。但是其销售费用的成本却同比增加16.9%。
Another remarkable data is the subsidy of mobile broadband terminal cost RBM3.33b against RMB4.24b in 2013. But the cost of sales increase by 16.9%.
根据中国联通的解释，销售费用增长的主要原因是为了促进业务增长，渠道费用增加所致。
China Unicom explains this higher sales cost is a result of growth of distribution fee.
那么，问题是，何以在4G元年之际，中国联通突然大幅度减少了终端补贴？难道中国联通真的要放弃了吗？
Why does China Unicom greatly decrease its subsidy for the termianl device in a sudden in the first year of 4G? Does it want to give up?
真正的原因恐怕并非那么简单。
The reason is not that simple.
措施3G窗口期，让联通4G开局疲软
China Unicom missed 4G’s window phrase , making it weak at the beginning of 4G.
对于中国联通来说，进入4G时代的疲软感，并非一朝一夕之原因。
There are many reasons.
在3G时代，中国联通可谓集合万千宠爱于一身。
In 3G time, China Unicom is the most favored.
拥有号称全球产业链最成熟的WCDMA 3G网络，以及最丰富的3G终端；领先竞争对手两年以上的独家苹果终端销售权。
It owned the most mature WCDMA 3G net and most ample 3G terminal devices. Also, it had exclusive sale of iPhone, 2 years ahead of its rivals.
但是令人惊讶的是，在过去的窗口期内，中国联通无论是在终端还是网络能力上，都没有能够建立起绝对领先的竞争优势
To our surprise, China Unicom didn’t take an absolute leading competitive advantage neither on terminal devices nor on network capacity in the past window phrase.
比如在终端的品类上，在4G牌照发放前的两年，TD-SCDMA的3G终端无论从价格还是从入网的品类数量，都已经开始超过WCDMA的终端。
For the category of terminal devices, TD-SCDMA runs ahead WCDMA in term of pricing and amount 2 years ahead the granting of 4G license.
至于在网络能力上，42M网络直到2013年上半年才在财报中宣布全网开通能力。
In term of network capacity, it’s not until the first half of 2013 that China Unicom announced opening up a 42M network the financial report.
要知道，在中国联通的“移动宽带一体化”战略中，42M网络被视为在中国联通拿到FDD牌照之前，对抗竞争对手的重要砝码。
It is well known that the in China Unicom’s “mobile broadband integration” strategy, the 42M network is the key against its rivals before it is granted with obtaining FDD license
在今年的3月份，中国联通还在信誓旦旦的宣布要加快推出支持42M网络的终端。
In March, China Unicom announced to speed up releasing the terminal devices for the 42M network.
而事实则是真正支持42M网络的终端少之又少，并没有获得产业链的支持，以至于中国联通不得不调整策略，宣布要支持42M+4G的终端。
But there are few terminals capable of supporting the 42M network. Without the help of industrial chain, China Unicom has to change its strategy and turns to support 42M+4G terminals.
至于在网络覆盖上，中国联通的3G基站只有40多万，在乡镇的覆盖率只有96%。尽管在3G初期，中国联通的网络速率赢得了用户的口碑，但是并没有建立起足够的用户规模，形成用户锁定的效应。
As to network coverage, there are only 400,000 3G base station with 96% rural fraction coverage. Though China Unicom won public praise by network rate in the earlier stage of 3G, it hasn’t form adequate and stable user base.
在这一点上，官方的统计数据很能说明问题，在新增的用户市场，TD的用户占比超过了百分之四十。
It is clarified by the official statistics. TD’s user based is over 40% among the new users.
此外，随着行业竞争激烈程度的增加，以及营改增政策的实施，此前依靠成本驱动的业绩增长模式已经变得越来越不可持续。
While the communication firms comes to dog-eat-dog competition and the tax policy of business tax to VAT comes up, it is more and more unsustainable for the grow mode driven by cost
红利窗口无奈关闭，FDD也不能挽救下滑趋势
As the bonus windows is closed, FDD cannot reverse the downturn of its growth rate.
可以说，中国联通的市场和技术红利窗口在进入4G时代已经被无奈的关闭了.
It is convinced that the market and technology bonus window are both shut down at the time of 4G time for China Unicom.
在这方面，战略判断的错觉，或许一定程度上可以解释其原因。
Maybe the misconception of strategic judgement is part of the reason.
行业内部人士可以记得，在刚刚发放4G牌照时，铺天盖地舆情大多是以42M网络对抗4G。
Industry insiders still remember the time when the 4G license was issued, overwhelming news is that the 42 network is capble of fighting against 4G network.
而在事实上，在过去的半年，网络能力的建设上，中国联通只是新增了8.4万个基站。包括4G和3G。与竞争对手中国移动的4G网络建设速度相比，相去甚远。公开数据显示其4G基站数量已经超过了30万。对4G网络的覆盖，大部分省市开始向乡镇延伸。在大城市则是开始瞄准写字楼、地铁等地下覆盖。
In fact, in the past six months, China Unicom just added 84,000 base stations to its network, including 4G and 3G. China Unicom's 4G networks construction are dwarfed by China Mobile, amounting over 300,000 base stations according to public data. China Mobile’s 4G network has extended to most villages and towns and also it aims at ground coverage of office building and subway.
也就是说，向精品4G网络的阶段已经开始。而中国联通还只是在16个城市刚刚启动混合组网的试点。
That is to say, China Mobile is building up a high-quality 4G networks, while China Unicom just started launched trials for hybrid networking in 16 urban cities.
更为悲观的消息则是，直到现在，何时正式运行FDD全国商用，在政策上依然存在极大的不确定性。以至于中国联通董事长常小兵先生在业务发布会上呼吁：期望内地在LTE FDD发牌上可以更加明确。
What’s more pessimistic, it is still unknown when FDD could officially be granted for commercial use. Mr. Chang Xiaobing, Chairman of China Unicom appealed for clarity information of LTE FDD licenses in a press conference.
显然，只有16个城市试点，且是具有中国国情的混合组网试点：要完成TD-LTE、FDD-LTE以及3G和2G的复杂情况的试点，对于中国联通来说，恐怕很难以走过场般的蒙混过关。
Obviously, China Unicom’s hybrid networking pilot in only 16 cities is so far enough to realised its ambition of TD-LTE, FDD-LTE and 3G and 2G complexity trials.
毕竟对中国政府来说，在当下的信息安全大形势下，在支持TD-LTE的基础上，支持4G的融合组网，是符合国家利益安排的趋势。
For the authorities, a 4G integrated networking based on TD-LTE is conformed to national interest in concerns of information network security situation.
有监管层官员就在近日曾经明确对媒体公开表示：，我国将在坚定不移地支持TD-LTE的基础上统筹发展LTE FDD和TD-LTE。
Recently, A regulating official told reporters that China will develop LTE FDD and TD LTE with a firm support of TD-LTE technology.
而在4G开始的这半年，中国联通在财报中所说的市场竞争环境的变化，有一个重要的事实则是，4G终端的价格已经大幅度下降，从千元机进入了百元机时代。
Changes of market mentioned by China Unicom in its report is plumet dropping of 4G terminals' price from above RMB1000 to below.
但是由于中国联通对FDD的不切实际的期待，则使得其无法利用这种技术红利
China Unicom cannot take use of this technological dividend for its unrealistic expectation on FDD.
在今年年底，毫无意外，其竞争对手的4G用户将超过5000万，并很可能随着资费价格大幅度下降，终端品类已经超过300款的情况下，冲破一亿规模运营大关的时间周期大幅度缩短的情况下，即使如中国联通所愿，在今年年底管理层允许FDD正式全国运营，恐怕其也错过了4G时代，并不能挽救中国联通增速上下滑的趋势。
At the end of this year, China Unicom’s rivals will see their 4G users over 50m. With charges dramatically declining and over 300 kinds of terminals, time period for RMB 100m revenue will greatly decreases. Even as China Unicom wish that the regulator grarnts FDD official national operations, China Unicom may have already miss the 4G generation and cannot avoid the downward trend in its growth.
相关文章
